Indonesia – The New Frontline of Global Aluminium Supply.
With China’s smelting sector capped at 45 MTPY and domestic bauxite reserves depleting, Chinese majors are looking offshore, and for alumina and primary aluminium, Indonesia has become their top target. Supportive government policy, vast resource potential, low refining costs and proximity to China have transformed Indonesia into a hive of activity across the entire aluminium value chain, from bauxite mining, through alumina refining to primary aluminium smelting.
But how vast are Indonesia’s bauxite reserves, really? Official estimates put known bauxite reserves at 3.3 bln tonnes, yet CM’s on-the-ground analysis suggests a far leaner figure, with processable, post-washing reserves dropping the figure even further. Land access issues, high clay content, and complex local regulations further tighten the supply picture, even as major Chinese groups accelerate investment.
Costs matter too. Typical West Kalimantan mines face high transport and washing losses, pushing operating costs into Q2/Q3 of the global bauxite mining cost curve (CFR local refineries), although the refineries are positioned in Q1 of the global alumina cost curve. Yet Indonesia remains a magnet for capital, with nearly 40% of resources already controlled by just five major players; Antam, Harita/CITA, Cakra Internusa, Persada Pratama Cemerlang, and Tayan Alumina Abadi. The government’s firm export ban only reinforces the trajectory of ‘value-add in country or don’t export at all’.
CM’s Indonesia Aluminium Value Chain Outlook to 2035 report provides the most independent and detailed view of this fast-evolving sector. Built on fieldwork, reserve analysis, and direct stakeholder engagement, it tracks how Indonesia’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminium industries will grow over the next decade. For investors, refiners, and policymakers alike, this is the essential guide to the opportunities and risks shaping the country’s aluminium future.
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